很多人說隨著人工智能技術的發展，未來智能機器人盛行，機器人替代人類工作，人一天工作做幾個小時完事了，不像現在工作八個小時或以上，真的又有這樣一個大餅嗎？
如僱員甲工作4個小時，乙工作8個小時乃至更多，甲獲得了4個小時的工作經驗，乙比甲多，雇主為什麼要雇傭只有一半工作經驗的甲們？而不是工作經驗雙倍或以上的乙們？
如僱員甲要求工作4個小時拿600元的工資，僱員乙想工作8小時拿800元工資，雇主為什麼要雇傭拿得更多的甲？
如僱傭僱員甲們的A公司最終製作出來的產品成本7000元，賣10000，僱傭僱員乙們的B公司的最終製作出來的產品成本5000元，賣8000，兩者同樣的質量，都是賺3000元，銷售商和消費者為什麼要進、買A公司更加貴的產品？
如果一個工種的機器人盛行，那個工種的僱員為什麼不是失業，而是工作時間變少成為幾個小時？比如機器人代替了司機、廚師、銷售員、快遞員、加油員和保姆，為什麼這些人不是要另求發展，而是還能工作幾個小時拿著與原來相同的工資？如果拿著相同的工資，雇主為什麼要花錢引進智能機器人？
馬雲是開互聯網公司阿里巴巴、淘寶等的，對手京東董事長劉強東針對馬雲說阿里巴巴公司增加了就業表達了質疑，劉強東說電子商務讓就業人數更少[1]。
劉強東和馬雲
最近馬雲說不需要擔心人工智能對就業的衝擊，前外交副部長傅瑩說想找他辯論一下：
人才結構的調整，怎樣才能跑贏新技術的迭代和產業結構的躍升？年輕一代的就業問題如何解決？ [2]
人類歷史上還有大量的樂觀想像，被證實是海市辰樓的事情，如吃道教丹藥長生不老，結果還減少了壽命。認為天然的東西比後天改造的好[3]。有佛、道、基督、伊斯蘭教許下肉身不朽等大餅。馬可波羅出品《馬可波羅遊記》，故事加上美化他去的國家而極度熱銷。有賭徒以為能贏的牌桌賭博。有研發永動機。有“龐氏騙局”的資金拆東牆補西牆。有金字塔拿佣金的傳銷。有水變油的商業項目。個人戀愛里有偶像劇[4]。文藝作品裡有阿Q的精神勝利法。如果因為是大餅就認為是真實的，就和我們批判過的阿Q精神沒有區別了。
來源：
- 執筆怡餘生L《劉強東痛懟馬雲，一針見血：電商創造的不是就業 是大批失業！ 》，2018-09-01。 ↩
- 《外交部前副部長傅瑩隔空喊話馬雲：我想跟你辯論辯論》，2019-08 -30，網易轉南方都市報。 ↩
- 《自然不代表好》《草藥比化學藥物安全嗎？ 》 ↩
- 《為什麼現實的男人不像偶像劇裡的男人？ 》 ↩
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（translation）
How many hours will future people really work?
Many people say that with the development of artificial intelligence technology, intelligent robots will prevail in the future, and robots will replace human work. People work for a few hours a day to finish, unlike working now for eight hours or more. Is there really such a pie? ?
If employee A works for 4 hours, B works for 8 hours or more, A has gained 4 hours of work experience, and B has more than A. Why should employers hire A who only has half of the work experience? Rather than having double or more work experience?
If employee A requires a wage of 600 yuan for 4 hours of work, and employee B wants to pay 800 yuan for 8 hours of work, why should the employer hire more A?
For example, the company A that hires employees A will cost 7,000 yuan to sell 10,000 yuan, and the company B that hires employees B will cost 5,000 yuan to sell 8,000. The same quality will cost 3000 yuan Yuan, why do sellers and consumers buy and buy company A's more expensive products?
If a type of robot is prevalent, why are employees of that type of job not unemployed, but working hours reduced to a few hours? For example, robots have replaced drivers, chefs, salesmen, couriers, gasmen, and babysitters. Why don't these people want to develop another, but can still work for several hours with the same salary? If they have the same salary, why should employers spend money to introduce intelligent robots?
Ma Yun started the Internet companies Alibaba and Taobao. His rival Liu Qiangdong, the chairman of JD.com, expressed his doubts about Ma Yun ’s saying that Alibaba has increased employment. Liu Qiangdong said that e-commerce has made fewer people [^ 1].
! [Liu Qiangdong and Ma Yun] (http://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/13794203-df2284eb433e7cad.jpeg?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1080/q/50)
! [Liu Qiangdong and Ma Yun] (http://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/13794203-df2284eb433e7cad.jpeg?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1080/q/50)
Recently, Ma Yun said that there is no need to worry about the impact of artificial intelligence on employment. Former Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said that he wanted to discuss with him:
How can the adjustment of talent structure outperform the iteration of new technologies and the leap in industrial structure? How to solve the employment problem of the younger generation? [^ 2]
There are still a lot of optimistic imaginations in the history of mankind, which proved to be a matter of Chenlou in Haishi, such as eating Taoist medicine for immortality, and as a result, the lifespan was reduced. I think that natural things are better than the ones that were acquired [^ 4]. There are big cakes such as Buddha, Tao, Christ, and Islam that grant immortality. Marco Polo produced "Marco Polo's Travels", and the story is extremely popular with the beautification of the country he went to. Some gamblers thought they would win the table games. There are R & D perpetual motion machines. There is "Ponzi scheme" funds to demolish the east wall to make up the west wall. There is pyramid pyramid scheme. There are commercial projects where water turns into oil. There is an idol drama [^ 3] in personal love. The literary and artistic works contain Ah Q's spiritual victory method. If it is considered true because it is a pie, it is no different from the spirit of Ah Q that we have criticized.
source:
[^ 1]: Written by Yi Yusheng L "[Liu Qiangdong pained Ma Yun, one-shot: E-commerce created not employment but massive unemployment! ] (http://mini.eastday.com/bdmip/180901221712756.html#)》, 2018-09-01.
[^ 2]: "[Fu Ying, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs shouts from the sky Ma Yun: I want to debate with you] (http://3g.163.com/news/article/ENPVQEUB0001875N.html)", 2019-08 -30, NetEase to Southern Metropolis Daily.
[^ 3]: "Why are real men not like men in idol dramas? 》
[^ 4]: "Nature does not mean good" "Is herbal medicine safer than chemical drugs?" 》
[^ 1]: Written by Yi Yusheng L "[Liu Qiangdong pained Ma Yun, one-shot: E-commerce created not employment but massive unemployment! ] (http://mini.eastday.com/bdmip/180901221712756.html#)》, 2018-09-01.
[^ 2]: "[Fu Ying, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs shouts from the sky Ma Yun: I want to debate with you] (http://3g.163.com/news/article/ENPVQEUB0001875N.html)", 2019-08 -30, NetEase to Southern Metropolis Daily.
[^ 3]: "Why are real men not like men in idol dramas? 》
[^ 4]: "Nature does not mean good" "Is herbal medicine safer than chemical drugs?" 》
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