很多人说随着人工智能技术的发展，未来智能机器人盛行，机器人替代人类工作，人一天工作做几个小时完事了，不像现在工作八个小时或以上，真的又有这样一个大饼吗？
如雇员甲工作4个小时，乙工作8个小时乃至更多，甲获得了4个小时的工作经验，乙比甲多，雇主为什么要雇佣只有一半工作经验的甲们？而不是工作经验双倍或以上的乙们？
如雇员甲要求工作4个小时拿600元的工资，雇员乙想工作8小时拿800元工资，雇主为什么要雇佣拿得更多的甲？
如雇佣雇员甲们的A公司最终制作出来的产品成本7000元，卖10000，雇佣雇员乙们的B公司的最终制作出来的产品成本5000元，卖8000，两者同样的质量，都是赚3000元，销售商和消费者为什么要进、买A公司更加贵的产品？
如果一个工种的机器人盛行，那个工种的雇员为什么不是失业，而是工作时间变少成为几个小时？比如机器人代替了司机、厨师、销售员、快递员、加油员和保姆，为什么这些人不是要另求发展，而是还能工作几个小时拿着与原来相同的工资？如果拿着相同的工资，雇主为什么要花钱引进智能机器人？
马云是开互联网公司阿里巴巴、淘宝等的，对手京东董事长刘强东针对马云说阿里巴巴公司增加了就业表达了质疑，刘强东说电子商务让就业人数更少[1]。
刘强东和马云
最近马云说不需要担心人工智能对就业的冲击，前外交副部长傅莹说想找他辩论一下：
人才结构的调整，怎样才能跑赢新技术的迭代和产业结构的跃升？年轻一代的就业问题如何解决？[2]
人类历史上还有大量的乐观想像，被证实是海市辰楼的事情，如吃道教丹药长生不老，结果还减少了寿命。认为天然的东西比后天改造的好[3]。有佛、道、基督、伊斯兰教许下肉身不朽等大饼。马可波罗出品《马可波罗游记》，故事加上美化他去的国家而极度热销。有赌徒以为能赢的牌桌赌博。有研发永动机。有“庞氏骗局”的资金拆东墙补西墙。有金字塔拿佣金的传销。有水变油的商业项目。个人恋爱里有偶像剧[4]。文艺作品里有阿Q的精神胜利法。如果因为是大饼就认为是真实的，就和我们批判过的阿Q精神没有区别了。
来源：
- 执笔怡余生L《刘强东痛怼马云，一针见血：电商创造的不是就业 是大批失业！》，2018-09-01。 ↩
- 《外交部前副部长傅莹隔空喊话马云：我想跟你辩论辩论》，2019-08-30，网易 转 南方都市报。 ↩
- 《自然不代表好》《草药比化学药物安全吗？》 ↩
- 《为什么现实的男人不像偶像剧里的男人？》 ↩
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（translation）
How many hours will future people really work?
Many people say that with the development of artificial intelligence technology, intelligent robots will prevail in the future, and robots will replace human work. People work for a few hours a day to finish, unlike working now for eight hours or more. Is there really such a pie? ?
If employee A works for 4 hours, B works for 8 hours or more, A has gained 4 hours of work experience, and B has more than A. Why should employers hire A who only has half of the work experience? Rather than having double or more work experience?
If employee A requires a wage of 600 yuan for 4 hours of work, and employee B wants to pay 800 yuan for 8 hours of work, why should the employer hire more A?
For example, the company A that hires employees A will cost 7,000 yuan to sell 10,000 yuan, and the company B that hires employees B will cost 5,000 yuan to sell 8,000. The same quality will cost 3000 yuan Yuan, why do sellers and consumers buy and buy company A's more expensive products?
If a type of robot is prevalent, why are employees of that type of job not unemployed, but working hours reduced to a few hours? For example, robots have replaced drivers, chefs, salesmen, couriers, gasmen, and babysitters. Why don't these people want to develop another, but can still work for several hours with the same salary? If they have the same salary, why should employers spend money to introduce intelligent robots?
Ma Yun started the Internet companies Alibaba and Taobao. His rival Liu Qiangdong, the chairman of JD.com, expressed his doubts about Ma Yun ’s saying that Alibaba has increased employment. Liu Qiangdong said that e-commerce has made fewer people [^ 1].
! [Liu Qiangdong and Ma Yun] (http://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/13794203-df2284eb433e7cad.jpeg?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1080/q/50)
! [Liu Qiangdong and Ma Yun] (http://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/13794203-df2284eb433e7cad.jpeg?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1080/q/50)
Recently, Ma Yun said that there is no need to worry about the impact of artificial intelligence on employment. Former Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said that he wanted to discuss with him:
How can the adjustment of talent structure outperform the iteration of new technologies and the leap in industrial structure? How to solve the employment problem of the younger generation? [^ 2]
There are still a lot of optimistic imaginations in the history of mankind, which proved to be a matter of Chenlou in Haishi, such as eating Taoist medicine for immortality, and as a result, the lifespan was reduced. I think that natural things are better than the ones that were acquired [^ 4]. There are big cakes such as Buddha, Tao, Christ, and Islam that grant immortality. Marco Polo produced "Marco Polo's Travels", and the story is extremely popular with the beautification of the country he went to. Some gamblers thought they would win the table games. There are R & D perpetual motion machines. There is "Ponzi scheme" funds to demolish the east wall to make up the west wall. There is pyramid pyramid scheme. There are commercial projects where water turns into oil. There is an idol drama [^ 3] in personal love. The literary and artistic works contain Ah Q's spiritual victory method. If it is considered true because it is a pie, it is no different from the spirit of Ah Q that we have criticized.
source:
[^ 1]: Written by Yi Yusheng L "[Liu Qiangdong pained Ma Yun, one-shot: E-commerce created not employment but massive unemployment! ] (http://mini.eastday.com/bdmip/180901221712756.html#)》, 2018-09-01.
[^ 2]: "[Fu Ying, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs shouts from the sky Ma Yun: I want to debate with you] (http://3g.163.com/news/article/ENPVQEUB0001875N.html)", 2019-08 -30, NetEase to Southern Metropolis Daily.
[^ 3]: "Why are real men not like men in idol dramas? 》
[^ 4]: "Nature does not mean good" "Is herbal medicine safer than chemical drugs?" 》
[^ 1]: Written by Yi Yusheng L "[Liu Qiangdong pained Ma Yun, one-shot: E-commerce created not employment but massive unemployment! ] (http://mini.eastday.com/bdmip/180901221712756.html#)》, 2018-09-01.
[^ 2]: "[Fu Ying, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs shouts from the sky Ma Yun: I want to debate with you] (http://3g.163.com/news/article/ENPVQEUB0001875N.html)", 2019-08 -30, NetEase to Southern Metropolis Daily.
[^ 3]: "Why are real men not like men in idol dramas? 》
[^ 4]: "Nature does not mean good" "Is herbal medicine safer than chemical drugs?" 》
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